In Bayahaaw village, on the outskirts of Jowhar in central Somalia, farmers face a difficult choice: plant crops and risk losing them to floodwaters or leave their fields bare and face potential hunger in the coming year.

Nuh Adan, a farmer and community leader in Bayahaaw, said flooding caused by breached riverbanks could devastate local agriculture for months.

"If the river breaks and the floods hit us, the effects will last until the next rainy season in March,” Adan said.

Flooding in 2023 affected nearly 2 million people across Somalia and displaced more than 500,000, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross. Communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers remain particularly vulnerable, with breached embankments threatening farmland, homes and entire villages.

Despite the risks, farmers say they cannot afford to skip a planting season.

"We have seen maize cobs that were not yet fully developed, only needing 15 to 25 days to be ready for harvest, being destroyed by floods,” Adan said. "And we just had to bear the loss. But abandoning the farms is not an option.”

Above-average rainfall and flooding are expected to worsen food insecurity, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis. The impact could be particularly severe for the estimated 3.3 million people living in informal displacement settlements across Somalia.

Many displaced families live in overcrowded shelters made from sticks, scraps of cloth and corrugated iron sheets. Access to clean water and adequate sanitation is limited, leaving residents exposed to additional risks when heavy rains arrive.

"We are terrified of the upcoming rains,” said Kamillo Muse, 59, who lives in the Ceeynu Nasri displacement camp in Jowhar. "After three years of not having good rainfall, it feels like it will return with a vengeance.”

"If it pours, forget those living in displacement camps. Even people in proper houses will be forced to flee. So what do you expect will happen to us in the camps?” she added.

Humanitarian organizations are preparing for possible flooding by drawing on lessons from the 2023 disaster and taking steps to reduce damage before floodwaters arrive. But aid operations have contracted significantly as funding cuts have reduced the sector's resources and capacity.

"Better preparation and better data. That's the good news compared to 2023,” said Antoine Grand, head of the ICRC delegation in Somalia. "The bad news is that humanitarian funding and capacity in general have seriously decreased.”

The ICRC and the Somali Red Crescent Society are distributing sandbags and stockpiling essential supplies, including tarpaulins, mosquito nets and hygiene items, in flood-prone areas. They are also supplying supported health facilities with medical and nutritional items to help keep services running during emergencies.

Somali Red Crescent volunteers in Kismayo, Bardere, Jowhar and Beletweyne have also received boat training to strengthen their ability to respond to flooding, the ICRC said.

El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon that begins in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can alter weather patterns around the world, contributing to drought in some regions and heavier rainfall in others.

In Somalia, the phenomenon could intensify the Deyr rainy season, which typically runs from October through December, increasing the risk of severe flooding, particularly along the Shabelle and Juba rivers.

For farmers such as Adan and families living in displacement camps, the coming months could determine whether they retain their homes, livelihoods and access to food.