OPINION: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is driving Somalia towards unavoidable failure

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OPINION: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is driving Somalia towards unavoidable failure

MOGADISHU (HORN OBSERVER) Amid a devastating security crisis, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's new administration has now hit its road to failure. Unable to curb corruption, nepotism and deep political crisis. The last example could be Southwe

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FILE PHOTO: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

MOGADISHU (HORN OBSERVER) Amid a devastating security crisis, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's new administration has now hit its road to failure. Unable to curb corruption, nepotism and deep political crisis. The last example could be Southwest and Puntland states now considering severing their ties with Mogadishu.

Despite lofty promises of "Somalia at peace with itself and the world,” little progress has been made on security issues. The conflict with al-Shabaab is raging again. The strategy to use the Ma’awisley militia as the main force against al-Shabab, undermines the Somali security forces. Nevertheless, with over six months after being re-elected, President Hassan Sheikh has facilitated the emergence of failed security and a government based on the structure of patronage and the absence of accountable administration, nepotism, clannism, the marginalization of stakeholders and the worst ever attacks on the free press. Regrettably, cronyism and corruption in Somalia are no longer considered taboo; they have been ingrained in the culture as an accepted norm.

Throughout the past five months, bad governance has seriously thwarted efforts to stabilize Somalia. Millions of dollars allocated for humanitarian and security assistance were misused or wasted on lavish presidential travels and flawed efforts to arm clan militias that raised a very serious clan rivalry in the southern and central regions.

THE MAY 2022 ELECTION

The selection of Hassan Sheikh as the new Somalia president by the Somali parliament in May this year did not only reflect the internationally-enabled failures of the past two recent administrations in Mogadishu from 2012 - 2021, it has become an indicative of how Somalis missed to confront the political despair that ravaged the Horn of African nation in the past three decades. Despite committing to hold direct elections in the country, the past two administrations have chosen to have a narrow electorate to enable them to buy votes and rig elections.

The election cycle of 2016/17 was fraught with vote-buying and candidates choosing their own electors. The results were predictable for the individuals that rigged the elections, encouraging them and others to emulate them in the election cycle of 2021/22. This cycle was even more corrupt and less open, with almost all seats closed for selected candidates.

Without doubt, the 2021/22 parliamentary elections yielded the desired outcomes for those who rigged the elections. They succeeded in electing virtually all their desired candidates to parliament. The only lesson here is that it is politically advantageous to rig elections and that there is no accountability for doing so. Rational political actors will calculate that they would have to be even more vicious in their vote rigging and buying in the next election cycle.

As the Somali public does not pay the bulk of the funds that run the federal government, its leaders have no respect for them or their priorities. The government has more respect and is more responsive to the international community that pays its bills and gives it physical protection. It is therefore unlikely that universal suffrage will ever be achieved in Somalia in the foreseeable future, as long as the international partners do not tie their support to democratisation and good governance.

Continuing in this path will not only progressively degrade public confidence in the government but will also fail to achieve the goals of the government’s international backers. Security will further worsen as security forces are used for political reasons; immigration will pick up as the country is mismanaged without accountability; and piracy may see a comeback as economic opportunities decline. Of more interest to the international partners, terrorist groups will continue expanding in the country and using it as a base of operations to destabilise the region and beyond.

SOMALIA NEEDS TO FOCUS DEMOCRATISATION AND GOOD GOVERNANCE

Therefore, the international support for Somalia needs to focus on democratisation and good governance and allowing a vibrant civil society that stands as a check and balance for the authorities in Somalia, not for the interests of the Somali people, but for theirs. Remaining on this path will only waste their taxpayers’ money while attaining negligible effects in support of their respective national objectives.

The president, who campaigned to unite the nation, had a unique opportunity to collaborate with Somalia’s competing political interests to create a unified government. Rather than fulfilling those promises, the president’s solo decisions and policymaking without consulting with parliament, have become increasingly authoritarian, turning the prime minister’s role as non-functioning, losing the support of the majority of the public!

Rebuilding Somalia, a country devastated by decades of civil war and violent extremism is daunting. Thus, this goal should be the government’s primary focus with the support of international partners, funding Somalia to help build a government, provide a secure and stable life for the Somali people, and create resiliency against al-Shabaab. The current government needs a developed strategy, plans, ends, ways and means to achieve them. The state of affairs in the country now seems like a one-man solo show!

By: Mohamud A. Nur

An independent political analyst