His second term started with strong national and international goodwill as espoused in his manifesto slogan-peace at home and with the world. He secured debt relief worth $4.5 billion, presided over the lifting of a decades-old UN arms embargo, and steered Somalia into the East African Community (EAC).

He also launched an unprecedented community-led offensive against al-Shabaab that reclaimed vast territory in central Somalia, a feat none of his predecessors had pulled. Clans in central Somalia volunteered young women under the Ma’awisley banner as women cooked for their sons who were now taking on Al-Shabaab in ways never imagined before. In a show while, territories which had been under the tight grip of Al-Shabaab for up to a decade were being reclaimed by the Somali National Army and the Ma’awisley militia. Once more, Somalis dreamt of better days ahead and the Somali-led-Somali-owned slogan made sense than never before. Government ministers, lawmakers took up arms and joined the allied forces as President Mohamud pitched tent in Dhusamareb to coordinate the war efforts. His overgrown beards made for the headlines showing a President too busy to attend to his grooming as he commands forces in the battlefield.

But the jamboree and the goodwill would soon vanish into thin air. The President returned to Mogadishu and took into the politics of survival that has become a brand in Somalia. He dropped the war agenda and picked the political card with unmatched enthusiasm. Things would gradually head south.

Rift with Federal Member States

First on the president’s political agenda was to unilaterally rework the Provisional Constitution through parliament, most of which is under his control. This would soon herald a major political fall-out with Jubaland and Puntland- perhaps the foremost Federal Member States in Somalia.  In the new changes, Somalia would transition from a parliamentary to presidential system and the country would adopt a First-Past-the-Post voting system with the introduction of one-person, one vote system. The transition from the clan-based system was a welcome step but one which called inclusive consultation. Puntland suspended its recognition of the federal government in March 2024, citing the lack of consultation in the constitutional review process.

Relations with Jubaland have deteriorated even more severely. In December 2024, the Somali National Army (SNA) launched a military campaign in Ras Kamboni aimed at weakening Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe. The offensive ended in failure, with over 250 SNA soldiers surrendering and 600 more fleeing into Kenya where they were disarmed by the Kenya Defence Forces. The incident drew heavy criticism and comparisons to similar missteps by former President Mohamed Abdullahi "Farmaajo,” whose aggressive centralization tactics ultimately backfired.

Notably, the SNA is largely funded by the international community. Its use in internal political disputes raises serious questions about the abuse of external resources.

A War Half-Won, Now Losing Direction

The initial momentum in the fight against al-Shabaab—driven by local Ma’awisley militias in regions like Mudug, Galgadud, and Middle Shabelle has largely stalled. There were reports that the clans were dismayed by the President’s lack of commitment and focus on politics at the expense of the regions under Al-Shabab oppression. The lack of sustained support from the federal government has adversely reduced their operational effectiveness of the Ma’awisley militia.  

Against this backdrop, Al-Shabaab is fast regaining ground. The strategic capture of Adan Yabal and heavy casualties on the SNA in April was perhaps the biggest loss for the Federal Government after a victorious in of the Middle Shabelle town in July 2022. Al-Shabaab has also recaptured several other villages and mounted attacks on the government forces and even launched adaring IED attack on the President’s convoy in Mogadishu in March. All these attacks, security analysts argue may have been in a one way or another a result of the president’s deliberate shift away from dedicated support for the war in favour of political expediency.

Frequent changes in the leadership of both the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and the SNA have also weakened institutional continuity and response capacity.

Uncertainty Over AUSSOM’s Future

Amid the lacklustre war against Al-Shabaab by Somali Security Forces, the fate of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) remains on the balance owing to unpredictable funding. There’s notable financing fatigue despite the very crucial window in preparation for an eventual handover of full responsibilities to the SSF. AUSSOM, whose first year alone requires $166.5 million, faces major funding gaps and inherited debt. Without firm international backing, the risk of a security vacuum looms large, and al-Shabaab could be the biggest beneficiary.

President Mohamud’s Options

Following widespread criticism and intense pressure from the opposition which has been holding a series of meeting this past week, President Mohamud announced a national consultative forum slated for June 15. The meeting will bring together stakeholders at the federal and regional level including FMS presidents, opposition leaders, civil society among others. While this may be a welcome step, it comes too late in the day and its intentions unconvincing. President Mohamud is already firmly in the race for the May 2026 presidential elections and has launched his vehicle- Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP).

To build earn confidence from stakeholders especially the opposition, the President will have to go the extra mile of standing as a genuine party and not a candidate in upcoming elections. Critical for the President before the June 15 meet is securing a buy-in from Jubaland and Puntland as well as extending an olive branch to the opposition leaders some of who are his predecessors. All these parties must be gven the chance to actively participate and the FGS must show commitment to re-open some of the contentious issues such as the electoral model and constitutional clause passed by parliament.

Equally important is for the president to re-focus on the security sector and military operations. If going back to the battlefield will be the game changer, then he has no option. The national army, regional forces and the Ma’awisley group sorely need his attention and commitment. Puntland is doing a commendable job in fighting ISIS. The President should proudly acknowledge this and open channels to engage with the Puntland government and even meet the soldiers in the battle field.

The National Leadership Forum, which played a pivotal role in rallying the FGS and FMS leaders during President Mohamud’s first term should be revisited with urgency. This means President Mohamud must walk the talk, reach out to President Abdullahi Deni and Ahmed Madobe and genuinely engage. It is only by bringing all the FMS leaders on board can the country move forward.

    Abdirahman Yusuf Ali is social and peace activist, founder of Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka, Researcher and Writer. Former Youth development advisor at Federal Ministry of Youth and Sports and Federal member stated .

Organization: Uistaag Dadka iyo Dalka

Email: [email protected]