Confusion and Instability: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's tangled web of alliances

Visits: 2359
(Rating 0.0/5 Stars) Total Votes: 0
0 0
Share via Social Media

Confusion and Instability: Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's tangled web of alliances

BY - AHMED MOHAMMED

Share

PHOTO: Cartoon by Amin Amir.

BY - AHMED MOHAMMED

The political landscape in Somalia has been marred by confusion and instability since the inauguration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM). One of the key issues that have raised eyebrows is the series of security pacts that HSM has entered into with various countries, leading to a tangled web of alliances and rivalries.

One such agreement was struck with Ethiopia's Prime Minister in 2023, allowing non-ATMIS forces from Ethiopia to enter Somalia, particularly in the Gedo region. This move was aimed at settling the situation in Gedo, which had been a point of contention for both HSM and the former President Farmajo. The involvement of Ethiopian forces in Somali territory raised concerns about sovereignty and national security.

Another significant pact was made with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), giving them control over Somalia's sovereignty and military affairs. This agreement sparked tensions with Ethiopia, especially over the training of Somali personnel by Egypt under UAE sponsorship.

Despite the Mogadishu agreement, the UAE heavily invested militarily in Jubaland and Puntland, further complicating the security situation in the region.

In the midst of these complex alliances, HSM turned to Turkey for a defense pact, which involved the training of the Somali naval force and equipment provisions. This move came after political clashes with Ethiopia, raising questions about HSM's shifting alliances and priorities. The UAE, which had previously invested heavily in Somalia, was not pleased with the new Turkish pact, leading to further tensions in the region.

Erratic behavior and indecisiveness

The continuous back-and-forth between various countries and alliances has created a sense of political instability in Somalia. HSM's erratic behavior and indecisiveness have left many wondering about his true motives and intentions. The impact of these shifting alliances on Somalia's security structure and foreign defense agreements remains to be seen, but it is clear that the regional implications could be significant.

Despite the confusion and instability caused by HSM's political maneuvering, key international stakeholders such as the US, UK, and EU have remained relatively silent on the matter. This raises concerns about their involvement in Somalia's political affairs and their willingness to address the growing tensions in the region.

In the midst of the tangled web of alliances and regional rivalries in Somalia, President HSM made a significant move by forming a defense pact with Turkey. This agreement involved the training of the Somali naval force and the provision of military equipment, signaling a shift in alliances and priorities for HSM. This decision came after political clashes with Ethiopia, further complicating the already delicate situation in the region.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had previously invested heavily in Somalia, was not pleased with the new Turkish pact. The growing tensions between the UAE and Turkey in the region added another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. The UAE's displeasure with the Turkish deal only added to the political instability and uncertainty in Somalia.

Adding to the mix of political turmoil, Ethiopia made an MOU with the breakaway state of Somaliland, providing a 20km stretch of beachline in its regional control. This move sparked outrage among Somali politicians who viewed the memorandum as a violation of Somalia's territorial sovereignty. It led to President HSM declaring persona non grata against Ethiopian ambassadors and consulate members in Somalia, further straining relations between the two countries.

President HSM attempted to downplay the tensions by taking a softer stance on the controversial MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland. He stated that while they were not denying Ethiopian access to a seaport, they were unhappy with the process and believed that Mogadishu should have been consulted before such agreements were made. However, the issue continued to fuel animosity and distrust between Somalia and Ethiopia, adding another layer of complexity to the already convoluted political landscape.

The situation in Somalia remains precarious, with shifting alliances, rivalries, and disputes threatening to destabilize the region further. President HSM's intricate dance between various international partners and regional powers has only added to the confusion and uncertainty in the country. The impact of these political maneuverings on Somalia's security, stability, and sovereignty remains a pressing concern for both domestic and international stakeholders.

The political landscape in Somalia under President HSM continues to be marred by missteps and controversies, further complicating the country's stability and security. One of the key grievances lies in the constitutional amendment declared by President HSM without consulting regional states such as Puntland. This unilateral decision has sparked backlash, with Puntland refusing to accept any outcomes stemming from the changes to the agreed political and power-sharing formula.

Puntland, a key region in Somalia, has been vocal in its opposition to the constitutional amendments, which they view as a threat to the balanced political representation that allows each clan to have a fair share of political power. Despite public outcry and demands for consultation, President HSM has chosen to ignore Puntland's concerns, exacerbating tensions and deepening divisions within the country.

Another major setback occurred when since 23rd April 2024, Jubaland's President, Ahmed Madobe, refused to attend a regional security conference in Mogadishu. This move further highlighted the strained relations between the central government and regional states, casting a shadow of distrust and discord over efforts to foster unity and cooperation in Somalia.

Furthermore, Puntland has remained steadfast in its refusal to engage with President HSM until its demands are addressed. The standoff between the central government and regional authorities has created a deadlock, hindering progress on critical issues and exacerbating the already fragile political situation in the country.

Amidst these political disputes and power struggles, one pressing question remains unanswered: the fate of the campaign to root out Al-Shabaab from southern and central Somalia. Despite ongoing efforts and military operations, the militant group continues to pose a significant security threat to the country, perpetuating instability and undermining efforts towards peace and security.

The lack of coordination, consultation, and inclusive governance under President HSM has only served to deepen divisions and fuel tensions within Somalia. The failure to address the grievances of regional states, such as Puntland and Jubaland, has hampered efforts to foster unity and consensus, thereby hindering progress on critical issues affecting the country's stability and security.

As Somalia grapples with these complex challenges, there is an urgent need for dialogue, collaboration, and inclusive governance to move towards sustainable peace and stability. Addressing the grievances of regional states, engaging in meaningful consultations, and prioritizing the fight against terrorism are essential steps towards building a more cohesive and secure future for Somalia. Only through collective effort and cooperation can the country overcome its current impasse and chart a path towards lasting peace and prosperity.