Horn of Africa Faces Drier and Hotter OND Season, IGAD Warns

by: Horn Observer Contributor | 26 August 2025 19:19

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Horn of Africa Faces Drier and Hotter OND Season, IGAD Warns

NAIROBI, Kenya (HORN OBSERVER) — The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned that much of the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to face below-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal conditions during the October–

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Forecast indicates an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) with the highest likelihood over the eastern part of the region.

NAIROBI, Kenya (HORN OBSERVER) — The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned that much of the Greater Horn of Africa is likely to face below-average rainfall and warmer-than-normal conditions during the October–December (OND) 2025 season.

The outlook, released at the 71st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF71) in Nairobi, was developed in collaboration with national meteorological agencies, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and development partners.

The OND season is critical for the equatorial region, accounting for up to 70% of annual rainfall in parts of Kenya and Somalia.

Below-normal rainfall is expected across most of the region, especially in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania.

Above-normal rainfall is likely in localized areas, including south-eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Uganda, northern Somalia, and parts of Rwanda.

A delayed onset of rains is forecast for eastern areas such as southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern/eastern Tanzania, while a normal to early onset is expected in South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.

Temperatures are projected to be warmer than average across most of the region, with only a few cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, and Kenya expected to see near- or below-normal conditions.

Mohamed Ware, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary, urged regional collaboration: "The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Climate information must reach the last mile, and only through collaboration and early action can we turn forecasts into meaningful messages that drive timely action.”

Source: ICPAC.

Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Dr. Deborah M. Barasa, stressed the need for a regional approach: "Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach.”

Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, highlighted the importance of inclusive communication: "Early warning systems save lives only when they reach everyone, including the most vulnerable.”