El Niño Climate Impact Outlook – Somalia – UN OCHA

Somalia’s El Niño Climate Impact Outlook warns of a credible risk of severe flooding during the October–December 2026 Deyr season, particularly along the Jubba and Shabelle river corridors, if El Niño strengthens alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. While the scenario is not certain, the outlook urges early action to address the combined risks of flooding, drought, extreme heat, disease, food insecurity, displacement, and infrastructure vulnerabilities. It prioritizes stronger early-warning and evacuation systems, flood anticipatory-action protocols, WASH and health preparedness, displacement planning, and financing for a smooth transition from anticipatory action to recovery.

Somalia Urges Early Action as Super El Niño Raises Flood Risks

Somalia is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis as prolonged drought and cuts in aid leave around six million people facing severe hunger, while more than 700,000 have been displaced this year. During a visit to displacement camps in Kismayo, Norwegian Refugee Council Secretary General Jan Egeland warned that communities already weakened by drought and malnutrition could face another major shock as the October Deyr rains approach. Forecasts suggest El Niño could intensify rainfall and trigger severe flooding, potentially on a scale similar to the 2023 floods. The NRC is calling for urgent funding for food, nutrition, cash assistance, flood preparedness, early-warning systems, and long-term resilience programs.

Baidoa Residents Flee as New Troops Deployed To The City

Continued security concerns are making life even more difficult for communities affected by climate change, particularly those living in makeshift displacement camps in and around Baidoa. The situation has been further aggravated by subsequent attacks in the town, forcing not only internally displaced people (IDPs) but also local residents to flee their homes. Some residents were reportedly seen leaving with their livestock, reflecting growing fears that the political and military standoff around Baidoa could escalate into a wider conflict and trigger further displacement.

Somalia Mobilises for El Niño as Climate Risks Mount

Somalia is stepping up national preparations for potential climate-related shocks as the government assesses risks linked to the anticipated El Niño 2026 conditions and the upcoming Deyr rainy season. Minister of Environment and Climate Change Gen. Bashir Mohamed Jama opened the National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF 2026) in Mogadishu, where government officials and climate experts are examining the Deyr 2026 forecast, emerging climate risks and measures to strengthen preparedness.

The forum comes as Somalia faces continued exposure to drought, flooding and other climate-related disasters that have placed pressure on vulnerable communities, livelihoods and food security.

Separately, Somalia’s disaster management authorities have launched a regional preparedness meeting in Beledweyne, Hiraan Region, to strengthen early action ahead of forecast El Niño conditions in 2026 and other potential climate-related hazards.

The meeting provides a platform for government and humanitarian actors to review climate forecasts, assess potential risks, and identify early measures to reduce the impact of possible disasters, with particular attention to the threat of flooding and heavy rainfall in the region.

In Baidoa, The leader of South West State of Somalia has on Monday nominated a Ministerial Committee for El Niño Preparedness and Response as the country steps up efforts to protect vulnerable communities from potential climate-induced shocks, the statement said.

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Changing Seas Put Marka Fishermen’s Livelihoods at Risk

Fishermen in Marka, Lower Shabelle Region, are raising concerns over a decline in their daily catch, saying they sometimes return to shore empty-handed. They attribute the situation to climate change and monsoon winds, which make it difficult for boats to venture farther into the sea in search of fish. The fishermen say changing weather conditions have affected their livelihoods and, in some cases, have left them considering abandoning fishing altogether due to reduced catches and financial losses.