A Strategic U-Turn: Ethiopia-Somaliland Ties and Internal Crises Push Somalia's President to Meet Abiy Without Preconditions

by: Horn Observer Contributor | 10 December 2024 03:46

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A Strategic U-Turn: Ethiopia-Somaliland Ties and Internal Crises Push Somalia's President to Meet Abiy Without Preconditions

MOGADISHU, Somalia (HORN OBSERVER) – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, under mounting pressure from domestic opposition and the looming threat of civil unrest in Jubbaland, is set to embark on an unplanned, urgent trip to Ankara, Turkey,

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Hassan Sheikh to meet Abiy Ahmed in Ankara, Turkey.

MOGADISHU, Somalia (HORN OBSERVER) – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, under mounting pressure from domestic opposition and the looming threat of civil unrest in Jubbaland, is set to embark on an unplanned, urgent trip to Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday, according to Kaab TV citing sources within Somalia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The visit will reportedly include face-to-face discussions with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Erdogan, who has cultivated strong ties with both Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, is working to defuse the escalating diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.

The strained relationship stems from Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland for Red Sea access, signed on January 1, which Somalia vehemently opposes.

President Mohamud had previously refused to engage with Ethiopia on the issue, even expelling Ethiopian diplomats earlier this year in protest.

President Mohamud’s decision to meet with Abiy Ahmed signals a marked shift in his approach.

Somalia’s insistence on Ethiopia retracting the MoU before negotiations could proceed had been a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

However, escalating tensions with Ethiopia and Somaliland’s growing ties with Addis Ababa appear to have forced Mogadishu to reconsider.

In the backdrop of this diplomacy, Somalia also sought support from Egypt amid its strained relations with Ethiopia.

Cairo responded by sending weapons shipments to Mogadishu in recent months, further complicating the geopolitical dynamics in the region.

Jubbaland Crisis Deepens

The Ankara meeting comes at a critical time for Somalia, which faces internal political turmoil.

Jubbaland, a semi-autonomous regional state, recently suspended relations with the federal government, becoming the second regional state to sever ties with Mogadishu.

This move followed Jubbaland’s disputed re-election of regional president Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe for a third term, which the federal government rejected, citing a lack of federal oversight.

Jubbaland’s strategic importance cannot be overstated—it includes the vital port city of Kismayo and borders a contested maritime zone with Kenya rich in potential resources.

Amid the escalating row, Jubbaland issued an arrest warrant for President Mohamud, accusing him of human rights violations and other charges, further intensifying the standoff.

Clashes erupted last week in the coastal town of Raaskaambooni near the Kenyan border.

The Somali Federal Government deployed Turkish-trained elite units, Gorgor and Haramcad, allegedly to counter Jubbaland forces loyal to Madobe.

Jubbaland, whose forces are largely drawn from the Ogaden sub-clan of the Darood, claims to be advancing against federal troops primarily composed of the Hawiye clan deployed by Mogadishu.

The situation has led to a blockade of Raaskaambooni, restricting access and raising fears that the violence could spill into neighboring Kenya.

Somaliland-Ethiopia Relations Strengthen

Meanwhile, Somaliland recently held a peaceful presidential election, with opposition leader Abdirahman Irro declared the winner.

Irro's inauguration, scheduled for later this week, is set to further cement ties between Hargeisa and Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia recently sent a high-level delegation to Hargeisa to meet the president-elect, with another delegation expected to attend Irro’s inauguration, according to a source within Somaliland’s presidency.

Somaliland and Ethiopia are expected to proceed with their MoU after a promised review by President-elect Irro, signaling a growing alignment between the two.