Clan Deals and Terror: Hassan Sheikh's Gamble With Al-Shabaab in Somalia

by: Horn Observer Contributor | 15 May 2025 00:59

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Clan Deals and Terror: Hassan Sheikh's Gamble With Al-Shabaab in Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia (HORN OBSERVER) — Secret negotiations have been ongoing since early May between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and senior Al-Shabaab figures from the Hawiye clan, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter

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PHOTO: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (left) and Al-Shabaab head of intelligence Mahad Karate.

MOGADISHU, Somalia (HORN OBSERVER) — Secret negotiations have been ongoing since early May between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and senior Al-Shabaab figures from the Hawiye clan, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The mediation is reportedly being facilitated by influential Hawiye businessmen who maintain ties with both the government and the militant group.

Two Mogadishu-based businessmen and a federal government official—who all requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter—revealed details of what they described as a "give-and-take" strategy being adopted by President Mohamud in dealing with the Al-Shabaab insurgency.

The initiative, according to the sources, is framed along clan lines, with talks focused on Hawiye leaders within Al-Shabaab. President Mohamud is allegedly using these negotiations to solidify his hold on power amid rising political pressure and growing uncertainty about his leadership prospects.

Despite Al-Shabaab’s recent sweeping territorial gains—seizing control of large swathes of Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle—the group appears to have slowed its push toward Mogadishu. This marks a shift from their unprecedented momentum since 2011, when they were ousted from the capital.

"When President Mohamud returned to office in 2022, it marked the first time negotiations with Al-Shabaab were initiated,” said one businessman, who claimed credit on behalf of wealthy Hawiye businessmen—especially from the Hiraab sub-clan—for brokering the talks.

In early 2023, a committee formed by these businessmen met with senior Al-Shabaab leaders Mahad Karate and Yusuf Kaba-kutukade. During the meeting, the businessmen voiced concerns that Al-Shabaab's attacks were disproportionately affecting Hawiye-owned businesses, while those of other clans were largely spared.

This reportedly led to a mutual understanding: Al-Shabaab would refrain from direct attacks on Mogadishu’s businesses.

"The Shabaab movement also gave guarantees to selected businesses in and around Mogadishu, assuring them that they would not be targeted,” said one of the Mogadishu businessmen, using the term "movement” in reference to the Arabic name of the group.

One example cited was a prominent Mogadishu-based institution that was informed its drivers could safely use specific routes in and out of the city. A driver interviewed by our reporter confirmed he had been instructed by his employer to use only those designated roads.

"My boss told me that Al-Shabaab had granted permission to use the roads without any issue,” the driver said.

In exchange, the company resumed paying zakawat (taxes) to Al-Shabaab—a practice it had suspended in 2023 when Al-Shabaab was facing mounting military pressure. Now the payments are made in cash through intermediaries dispatched by the group’s finance wing in Mogadishu.

Back in January 2023, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre announced the closure of at least 250 bank accounts and 70 mobile money platforms linked to the group, with assistance from foreign intelligence services.

Amid this financial crackdown, Al-Shabaab reportedly demanded the reopening of frozen bank accounts and appealed to the businessmen for fresh financial support. In return, the group scaled down attacks on businesses, particularly along Maka Al-Mukarama Road.

The Kismayo Proposal

According to the sources, the current round of talks includes a significant proposal: President Mohamud has suggested that Al-Shabaab halt its offensive toward Mogadishu and maintain its current positions.

Between February and April this year, Al-Shabaab captured several key towns in Lower Shabelle, including Awdhegle, Barire, Sabid, and Anole.

The Barire Bridge—an important route connecting Lower Shabelle to the Jubba Valley—is now effectively under the group’s control. This has allowed Al-Shabaab to deploy large numbers of fighters closer to Mogadishu.

PHOTO: The Barire Bridge (above) is an important route connecting Lower Shabelle to the Jubba Valley and is now effectively under the group’s control.

In late March, Al-Shabaab began patrolling areas in the outskirts of Mogadishu. Residents confirmed that the group reopened its Sharia court at the Ali Mahdi farm, located between Mogadishu and Afgoye, offering an alternative judicial system. As a result, some Mogadishu residents are now reportedly traveling there to seek justice under Al-Shabaab’s system.

In Middle Shabelle, the majority of the region is now under the group's control. The latest major town to fall was Adan Yabal, which Al-Shabaab seized in April.

Al-Shabaab would also grant government forces access to parts of the road networks in Gedo and Lower Jubba, where a recently deployed federal forces are preparing for a ground assault on Kismayo.

The objective, the sources say, is to unseat the Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe and replace him with a pro-Mogadishu leader.

The federal government, now deploying troops in Bardhere—a town surrounded by militants—is reportedly seeking Al-Shabaab’s assurance that its forces won’t be targeted as they move through contested areas.

If Kismayo falls, Al-Shabaab would be guaranteed a share of the revenues from the city’s port and airport—an outcome the group views favorably.

A Sticking Point in Galmudug

On their part, Al-Shabaab is said to have demanded that the government vacate two key towns of Xarardheere and Ceeldheer in Galmudug, effectively returning those areas to militant control.

Xarardheere and Ceeldheer have long served as Al-Shabaab’s hubs for ransom operations. The group used these towns as bases for importing weapons, hosting foreign militants, and coordinating partnerships with pirate groups. The area also served as a training ground for Al-Shabaab militias, benefiting from its status as a safe haven for foreign fighters entering the country.

A security source told our reporter that the negotiations have hit a deadlock as the plan is yet to be implemented.

Some lawmakers have openly criticized the ongoing talks. MP Abdisalam Dhabancad, a member of the Somali Federal Parliament from Galmudug, confirmed the negotiations were in progress, but warned of their consequences.

"The talks are ongoing, but they are very dangerous because simply it means handing over the country to Al-Shabaab terrorists,” Dhabancad said.